Trade Update

EUR/CAD turned on me!

I happened to be watching events unfold on the 15 minute chart (to get a clear view of price reacting) and I thought I was going to be saved by the pin bar in my chart but I wasn't. I tightened my stop on the break of the pin to 1.3470 which was subsequently hit.

Trade No 8 was therefore closed for a loss of 20 pips (0.5%).

Trade No 8 - EUR/CAD

Got back in long again after test of ascending trendline, test of broken descending trendline and support around 1.3425.

I am long @ 1.3470 (80 pip stop).

Would have gone long off the hammer on the H4 charts but I was asleep then!

  

I therefore decided to drop down to the H1 charts to look for an entry and decided to buy at the close of this mornings (London session) opening candle:

Trade No 7 - AUD/JPY

I posted this possible setup yesterday at Forex Factory and have since taken the trade.

I am long AUD/JPY @ 82.90...


The reasons for the trade were:


1. Retracement to ascending trendline

2. Retracement to support/resistance at 82.50

3. Retracement to fib levels

4.  Hammer formed (as trigger) at the area of interest

Trade Update

Trade No 3 (GBP/USD long @ 1.6100) closed out at breakeven.

Trade No 6 (EUR/CAD long @ 1.3450) closed out for +100 pips.

Trade No 6 - EUR/CAD

Trade No 2 (AUD/USD Long) closed out today at breakeven.

Trade No 5 (EUR/CAD Long) closed out today at breakeven.

I am long EUR/CAD @ 1.3450

After my earlier trade on EUR/CAD got closed out (today, at breakeven) I decided to get back in (a few pips higher) after price formed a bullish outside bar on the 4 hour charts:

Trade No 5 - EUR/CAD

My EUR/CAD long triggered today...

I am long EUR/CAD @ 1.3420 (100 pip stop loss).

All other trades remain open.

Trade No 4 - EUR/USD

The key support/resistance level at 1.3500 has managed to hold again, so I have placed another order.

I am long EUR/USD @ 1.3600

Latest on the Euro:

My GBP/USD and AUD/USD trades are still open and are looking a little healthier now!

Trade No 3 - GBP/USD

Friday (11th) and Monday (14th) didn't manage to break the 1.6000 level so I decided to get long on GBP/USD.

I am long @ 1.6100 (currently up 25 pips).

So far, this year hasn't been great to me. Made a couple of £££ from Euro shorts that were running from last year but other than that things have been very slow. I was hoping that today's UK CPI announcement and Eurozone GDP results might have the market moving again but so far not much has happened. Boring!

It's times like these I get a bit itchy and think I should have been an intraday trader... but I would have probably gone bust by now if I had!!

Still no position on the EUR/USD... she seems to have found some "value" around 1.3500 which makes for boring trading too!

EUR/USD Thoughts

I'm not entirely convinced on the direction of the Euro at the moment. Price action has been fairly bullish lately but fundamentally I just can't see an uptrend being sustained in the long term.

I am still considering a buy... today's candle still has the potential to finish higher - and a hammer formation would be a signal that I would take.

However, looking from the H4 chart I get the sense that price is continuing to break down...

So I am going to be a little bit greedy and prepare to trade a breakout in either direction!

Trade No 2 - AUD/USD

Far from a perfect trade but I am looking for further upside on the AUD/USD.

I am long AUD/USD @ 1.0040 (100 pip stop).

It's currently sitting about 13 pips in the red which is not good; but I am going to hold on and see what happens!

Edit: Stop was missed by only 3 pips! Trade hangs in there at the moment... just!

The Week Ahead (w/c 14th February 2011)

* Please note this is not trade advice... just thoughts of what I might do next week. *

My attempt to buy EUR/USD got stopped out at breakeven at the end of last week... I may have moved my stop too quickly. If price remains above 1.3500 I will be looking to buy again on Monday.

GBP/USD ended the week just above 1.6000 and may well be a potential buy if price continues to move up from here.

USD/CHF and USD/JPY have both retraced 100% of their last leg down which is normally a sign of weakness in the trend. If this is true it signals USD strength which may mean I will have to revise my strategy for both my EUR/USD and GBP/USD setups.

USD/CHF and USD/JPY appear to have found resistance... after several weeks without much direction I have a feeling that this week will show us the way forward:

We also have a possible trade on AUD/USD. Price remains above 1.0000 and last Friday saw this level retested after breaking out on the 1st February. Friday's candle formed a small "hammer" and may signal an attempt to move up again.

Trade No 1 - EUR/USD

The market has been very slow since the start of the year with many existing trends slowing or changing. I feel the Euro has now turned up and am starting to look to buy.

This is the first trade I have entered since the trend turned up.

I am long EUR/USD @ 1.3600 (100 pip stop) after price rejected the 1.3500 area.

Edit: 10th February 2011 - Trade closed at breakeven.